Welcome to our NBA prop betting analysis for February 28, 2025! Today we focus on Onyeka Okongwu's assists prop in the Thunder vs Hawks matchup, complete with key data points, line movement, and statistical edges.
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🏀Onyeka Okongwu Over 2.5 Assists Analysis
Onyeka Okongwu
Atlanta Hawks | Center
1
Over 2.5 Assists (-148)
Okongwu's expanded playmaking role meets a favorable matchup against OKC's center defense. With a 14% edge and 63% probability of hitting, this prop offers significant value despite the juice.
Edge
+14%
Why We Like It:
- •Recent Form: Averaging 3.1 assists in last 7 games (+41% vs season avg). Rolling Average = (4+6+3+5+2+3+3)/7 = 3.7 (last week).
- •Matchup Edge: OKC allows 15.4 AST% to centers (4th-worst). Matchup Rating = (12.1 AST% / 15.4 allowed) ×100 = 127.
- •Injury Impact: Hawks missing 38% of frontcourt assists (Jalen Johnson/Nance). Available Usage = 18% team AST% redistribution.
- •Defensive Matchup: Isaiah Hartenstein allows 4.3 APG to centers. Position Impact = (12.1 AST% / 10.2 league avg) ×100 = 118.
- •Line Movement: Opened at -130 → Current -148 (-18¢ steam move). Sharp Money = 78% handle on Over.
Projected
3.3 APG
Edge
+14%
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