Disclaimer:
DeepBet AI provides data-driven insights for informational purposes only. All analysis is based on historical data, statistical models, and situational factors. Edge and probability calculations are estimates based on our proprietary algorithms. Sports betting involves financial risk, and there are no guaranteed outcomes. Please bet responsibly and within your means. We are not liable for any financial losses incurred.
Unlock 13 High-Value Bets
This comprehensive guide delivers thirteen high-value single bets with significant edge and probability advantages. From NBA player props to college basketball tournament picks, each selection is backed by advanced statistical modeling, matchup analysis, and precise mathematical calculations—the same approach professional bettors use to consistently find value.
Our methodology:
- Proprietary algorithms calculate true probabilities vs. implied odds
- Advanced usage rate and matchup edge formulas identify statistical advantages
- Comprehensive injury impact assessment on player projections
- Factoring of pace, blowout risk, and historical performance in similar situations
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1️⃣Franz Wagner (ORL) – Over 4.5 Assists (+120)
Franz Wagner
Orlando MagicOver 4.5 Assists (+120)
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- •Wagner is averaging 5.2 assists per game over his last 5 games.
- •Washington allows 25.6 assists per game (3rd-most in the NBA).
- •With Suggs and Cole Anthony out, Wagner has an increased playmaking role.
- •Matchup: Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
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2. Anthony Edwards (MIN) – Over 27.5 Points (-118)
Anthony Edwards
Minnesota TimberwolvesOver 27.5 Points (-118)
Why We Like It:
- •Edwards is scoring at an elite level, averaging 33.0 PPG in his last 5 games (+21% vs. season average).
- •The Pelicans have the 29th-ranked defense, allowing 119.0 PPG.
- •Edwards' usage jumps to 32.4% in tight games, and this matchup projects to be close.
- •Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
3. Cade Cunningham (DET) – Over 9.5 Assists (-104)
Cade Cunningham
Detroit PistonsOver 9.5 Assists (-104)
Why We Like It:
- •Cunningham is averaging 9.4 assists over his last 15 games, showing consistent playmaking.
- •Dallas allows 25.1 assists per game (6th-most in the league).
- •With Jaden Ivey out, Cunningham's usage and playmaking opportunities increase significantly.
- •Matchup: Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
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4. Jalen Green (HOU) – Over 3.5 Assists (-132)
Jalen Green
Houston RocketsOver 3.5 Assists (-132)
Why We Like It:
- •Green is averaging 5.2 assists in March, showing improved playmaking.
- •Miami allows 9.2 APG to shooting guards (6th-worst in the league).
- •VanVleet's role shift has opened more playmaking touches for Green.
- •Matchup: Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
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5. Jalen Duren (DET) – Over 11.5 Rebounds (-112)
Jalen Duren
Detroit PistonsOver 11.5 Rebounds (-112)
Why We Like It:
- •Duren is averaging 12.4 rebounds over his last 5 games.
- •Dallas allows 13.2 rebounds per game to centers.
- •He recorded 14 rebounds in his last meeting against Dallas.
- •Matchup: Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
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6. Eric Dailey Jr. (UCLA) – Over 9.5 Points (-110)
Why We Like It:
- •Dailey has scored 10+ points in 8 of his last 10 games.
- •He's averaging 14.0 PPG over his last 3 games.
- •UCLA's frontcourt focus gives Dailey consistent scoring opportunities.
- •Matchup: UCLA vs. Tennessee – 9:40 PM ET
7. Duke Brennan (GCU) – Over 8.5 Rebounds (+100)
Why We Like It:
- •Brennan is averaging 9.4 rebounds over his last 5 games.
- •He's gone over 8.5 rebounds in 7 of 10 games against top rebounding teams.
- •Tournament intensity typically leads to a minutes boost for key rebounders.
- •Matchup: Grand Canyon vs. Maryland – 2:10 PM ET
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8. Saint Mary's -4.5 (-108)
Why We Like It:
- •Saint Mary's defense ranks #5 nationally, giving them a significant edge.
- •They hold a +8.4 rebounding edge, limiting second-chance opportunities.
- •Saint Mary's holds an impressive 11-2 road record this season.
- •Matchup: Saint Mary's vs. Vanderbilt – 3:35 PM ET
9. Baylor +1.5 (-118)
Why We Like It:
- •Power rating models indicate Baylor should actually be slight favorites.
- •Baylor has a massive 3-point shooting edge against MSU's 326th-ranked perimeter defense.
- •Coach Scott Drew is 3.2 ATS in March games, showing consistent tournament performance.
- •Matchup: Baylor vs. Mississippi State – 12:40 PM ET
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10. UCLA +4.5 (-108)
Why We Like It:
- •UCLA holds a rebounding edge and rest advantage coming into this matchup.
- •Line has moved from +5.5 to +4.5 with smart money on UCLA.
- •Public is heavily backing Tennessee, but sharp money is on the Bruins.
- •Matchup: UCLA vs. Tennessee – 9:40 PM ET
11. Mississippi State vs. Baylor – Over 145.5 (-115)
Why We Like It:
- •Combined pace metrics project a total closer to 148 points.
- •Baylor's up-tempo offense paired with MSU's star scoring will drive the total higher.
- •DeepBet AI's projection shows 148.1 points, with a clear edge on the over.
- •Matchup: Baylor vs. Mississippi State – 12:40 PM ET
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12. Creighton vs. Louisville – Over 145.5 (-110)
Why We Like It:
- •Both teams play fast and shoot high volume from three-point range.
- •Pace and matchup modeling project this total closer to 150 points.
- •Tournament-specific metrics show higher scoring in these matchup types.
- •Matchup: Creighton vs. Louisville – 10:10 AM ET
13. Gonzaga vs. Georgia – Over 150.5 (-115)
Why We Like It:
- •Gonzaga's elite offense combines with Georgia's pace-heavy transition game.
- •DeepBet AI projects a final score of 153.3 points.
- •The bet has positive expected value above the implied 51.2% win rate.
- •Matchup: Gonzaga vs. Georgia – 1:35 PM ET
Final Thoughts
Today's lineup is one of the strongest slates of the month from DeepBet AI. From NBA player props to March Madness tournament picks, this card is stacked with value plays showing positive expected value. Our comprehensive analysis shows that every bet here has a strong edge when you break down the numbers.
- 01Edge Calculation Methodology:
Each selection undergoes rigorous analysis, calculating true win probability vs. implied probability from odds. We only recommend bets with positive expected value (+EV) of at least 4%.
- 02Diverse Selection Approach:
Our picks span multiple sports and bet types, ensuring you have options regardless of your betting preferences. Props, totals, and spreads all offer value when properly analyzed.
- 03Bankroll Management:
Recommended bet sizing should be proportional to edge percentage. Use 1-3% of bankroll for standard edges (4-8%) and 3-5% for stronger edges (>8%) for optimal long-term returns.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for ENTERTAINMENT AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. It does not constitute gambling, financial, legal, or professional advice. All statistical edge calculations and probability projections are estimates based on available data. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Sports betting involves risk; only wager what you can afford to lose. Always adhere to your local laws, and seek help if you suspect a gambling issue. DeepBet AI and its creators are not liable for any financial losses incurred. Please bet responsibly.
📈Edge Value Ratings
Our proprietary algorithm evaluates each selection's mathematical value on a 1-10 scale, measuring the statistical advantage over bookmaker lines.
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Happy Betting!
Ryan Matthews
Lead Sports Analytics Specialist
Ryan has been analyzing sports betting data for over 12 years and specializes in finding value in player props and game totals. His predictive models have documented success with a 57.3% win rate across 1,800+ public picks since 2021.
Conclusion
Whether you prefer player props or total scores, this March 21st slate has incredible value opportunities for both NBA and March Madness betting. Our AI analysis reveals considerable edges in 13 separate markets that bookmakers have mispriced.
While researching these picks, a clear pattern emerged: our highest-value plays tend to be in markets with less betting action, particularly NBA assist props and tournament team totals. By focusing on these underserved markets, we can consistently find significant value opportunities.
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